Information and infectious diseases spread through social networks, but the spreading probabilities driving them are hard to estimate without per-node activation times. Applications seldom supply these, and inference must instead proceed through indirect and noisy proxies for the terminal infection states. We study thi...
A. Goel, Illia Oleksiienko, M. Wilinski et al.· 0 citations
Forecasting short-horizon mid-price movements from limit order book (LOB) data is central to algorithmic trading, yet most deep LOB forecasters are point predictors: they output a direction or a displacement, but never indicate which of their forecasts can be trusted. We introduce UQ-LOB, a lightweight, encoder-agnosti...
D. Manoharan, Eljas Linna, K. Baltakys et al.· 0 citations
A model-agnostic framework is introduced that compares a trained forecaster's predictive distributions before and after injecting mechanically valid counterfactual messages, defining short-horizon model-implied market impact and providing evidence that pretrained Limit Order Book forecasters can be repurposed for scena...
Eljas Linna, K. Baltakys, D. Manoharan et al.· 0 citations
This work introduces LOBERT, a general-purpose encoder-only foundation model for LOB data suitable for downstream fine-tuning and achieves leading performance in tasks such as predicting mid-price movements and next messages, while reducing the required context length compared to previous methods.
Eljas Linna, K. Baltakys, Alexandros Iosifidis et al.· arXiv.org· 3 citations
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