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Ilia Karpov

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Preprint Jul 2026

MafiaScope: Non-Invasive, Time-Resolved Belief Probing for LLM Agents in Social Deduction Games

MafiaScope, an open testbed that turns the social deduction game Mafia into a measurement instrument for machine Theory of Mind, is presented, finding that stated confidence is poorly calibrated, agents overestimate how often they are suspected by a factor of 1.5, and single-vote counterfactual replays rarely change game outcomes.

Ilia Karpov · 1 citation

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