Inclusive finance and carbon productivity: a new perspective from OECD countries
Within the severe context of climate change, enhancing Carbon Productivity (CP) to mitigate the rise in carbon emissions during economic development is pivotal for fostering a low-carbon economic transition. Financial Inclusion (FI), by expanding financial services, has enabled the allocation of capital to various sectors, including those focused on environmental sustainability. Nonetheless, the precise effect of FI on CP remains ambiguous at the international level. This study, based on the data from 33 OECD member countries from 2010 to 2019, empirically examines the impact of FI on CP. Our findings indicate: (1) FI directly enhances CP, with a marginal effect of 0.014%. This direct impact remains robust after undergoing various robustness checks and addressing endogeneity concerns. (2) Panel quantile regression further confirms this causal relationship, showing that the impact of FI on CP is consistently positive. However, the positive impact exhibits an “increase-decrease” inverted “V” pattern as CP improves. (3) Mechanism analysis of indirect impact reveals that the low-carbon consumption, energy structure, and technology upgrades exert significant partial mediating effects. (4) The positive impact of FI on CP varies across different contexts, showing a range of heterogeneities. The impact is particularly stronger in non-Eurozone countries, in settings with higher levels of income inequality, and during the period of stricter environmental regulation. First published online 31 July 2026