Author

Hang-Chen Liu

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#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

TimeES: Probabilistic and Deterministic Time Series Forecasting via Evolutionary Spectra

Real-world time series are inherently non-stationary, with trends, periodic patterns, and uncertainty evolving over time. While the Fourier domain offers a natural lens to model time series, current deep learning approaches do not explicitly model evolution and randomness in the Fourier spectra, which limits their abil...

Wei-Wei Ye, Ren-He Jiang, Hang-Chen Liu et al. · 0 citations

#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

DiffPTS: Rethinking Diffusion ELBO for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

This work rethink the ELBO under the Location-Scale Noise Model and finds that it naturally induces a Gaussian negative log likelihood objective for the estimators and inherently defines a joint training objective that unifies recent diffusion paradigms for probabilistic forecasting.

Wei-Wei Ye, Dong-Yuan Li, Hang-Chen Liu et al. · 0 citations