Haleh Falakshahi

Beyond Marginal Coverage: Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction Reveals Diagnosis-Specific Uncertainty Structure in Psychiatric Neuroimaging

Conformal prediction is increasingly proposed for clinical decision support because it provides distribution-free coverage guarantees that hold for any model and any data distribution. The guarantee routinely reported, however, is marginal, and we show that in multi-class diagnostic classification it can be satisfied e...