The Role of Innovation Distributions in Forecasting Brent Crude Oil Volatility Using Univariate GARCH Models
This study investigates the impact of different error distributions on the performance of univariate GARCH-family models in modeling and forecasting the volatility of Brent crude oil returns from January 2014 to May 2025. Descriptive analysis reveals pronounced fluctuations, volatility clustering, and asymmetric beh...