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Giorgio Micaletto

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Preprint Oct 2026

Overlap, Not Moments: Finite-Sample Theory for Bridge Sampling

Bridge sampling estimates of marginal likelihoods are routinely reported with a delta-method Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE). Existing theory is asymptotic and cannot say whether a given run is long enough to trust the estimate or its MCSE. We give finite-sample answers. The optimal bridge estimator fits a logistic r...

Giorgio Micaletto · 0 citations