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Galen Fontaise

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#edge computing Open access Sep 2026

Preregistration: Forecasting Crises Inside Autocracies with Historical Backcasts

Preregistered protocol, version 1.4, for sprint 4 of seldon-lab, the research workflow of the Computational Macrohistory (CMH) programme at the Foundations Institute of Computational Social Science (FICSS). Question. Among non-democracies (V-Dem polyarchy below 0.5), does a model with slow covariates forecast crises be...

Galen Fontaise · 0 citations

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