G. Lukyanov

“ Contrarian Motives in Social Learning

Opinions Before Evidence: Dynamic Information Quality and Source Familiarity

New information services begin without a record that teaches customers how to interpret them. We study a two-period monopoly selling standardized forecasts whose committed scoring technology combines noisy evidence with a persistent, initially unknown calibration. More evidence improves a forecast's current decision va...

Effort without Evidence

Advice can determine not only how past evidence is interpreted but whether new evidence will be produced. I study a sequence of decision makers who observe public success or failure but not one another's effort, and who pass costless causal assessments to their successors. Because a sender values success while underwei...

Informational Inertia and Staggered Prices

We study a duopoly in which firms and consumers do not know which product better fits consumers'needs. Consumers begin with a default seller, privately know their switching costs, and may pay to acquire a private signal about product fit. Search determines which evidence is acquired; switching determines whether it app...