Author

E. A. Barnes

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Open access Sep 2026

Turning up the Heat: Assessing 2‐m Temperature Forecast Errors in Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction Models During Heat Waves

Extreme heat is the deadliest weather‐related hazard in the United States. Furthermore, heat extremes are increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration, making skillful forecasts vital to protecting life and property. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle with extreme heat forecasts on lon...

Kelsey E. Ennis, Marybeth C. Arcodia, Martin A. Fernandez et al. · Meteorological Applications · 0 citations

Sep 2026

On the seasonal predictability of the 2020 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season

The 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) season was unprecedented, producing a record storm count that exceeded the seasonal forecasted ranges, despite their anticipation of high activity. Here we assess the likelihood of the extreme 2020 season given the observed sea surface temperature (SST) forcing by examining a h...

E. Levin, M. Chien, E. A. Barnes et al. · Monthly Weather Review · 1 citation

Preprint Aug 2026

Extremes on Rewind: Generating 1,000-Member Ensembles Initialized at a Final Condition

Scenario planning for rare, high-impact events often requires massive ensembles to stochastically sample relevant trajectories. Although autoregressive weather emulators can efficiently generate such ensembles, isolating trajectories of interest requires sifting through petabytes of data, a challenge that grows exponen...

Jerry Lin, M. Chien, Mansi Sakarvadia et al. · 1 citation