APPLYING THE SECM–SEFSC AUGMENTED ACM MODEL III TO THE SEPTEMBER 16, 2026 FOMC DECISION: An Ex Ante Scenario Forecast, Consensus-Hike Test, and Post-Event Validation Protocol
This pre-decision research note applies the verified SECM–SEFSC Augmented ACM Model III to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of September 15–16, 2026. With a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds target range heavily priced into markets, the analysis argues that the dominant market signal is likely to co...