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Preprint Aug 2026

Sensitivity of the ECMWF seasonal forecast model to CO2 and anthropogenic aerosol forcings: Experimental design and impact on climate trends

Detection and attribution studies typically rely on free running climate models with modified anthropogenic forcings, yet they fail to reproduce key observed decadal trends. Despite reduced biases, higher predictive skill, large ensembles, and improved trends through frequent reinitialization, seasonal forecast models...

Michael Mayer, D. Befort, Jacob W. Maddison et al. · 0 citations

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