BackTrend: Evaluating Scientific Weak-Signal Prediction via Backward Reconstruction
BackTrend is introduced, a retrospective benchmark in which, given a mature target topic and a temporal evidence constraint, systems must recover two types of precursors: problem-space signals, underrecognized research problems, and solution-space signals, emerging methods for known problems.
Xiao Zhou, Yi-Lun Zhao, Owen Jiang et al.
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