Preprint
Sep 2026
Trade-Adaptive Aggregation of Probabilistic Financial Forecasts
Financial NLP systems produce probabilistic forecasts from news, reports, and filings. Prediction markets can aggregate these forecasts sequentially, but their fees must reward information without overcharging low-risk updates. Existing quadratic-fee mechanisms use a state-blind bound, while a local-curvature envelope...
Yankai Chen, Rassul Magauin, Bowei He et al.
· 1 citation