Probabilistic prediction heads in neural networks typically output either a Gaussian mixture or a single conformal region. Neither separates the distinct sources of uncertainty often present in real prediction tasks: a discrete choice among modes, bounded systematic drift within the chosen mode, and irreducible stochastic noise. We introduce the Hybrid Probabilistic Zonotope (HProbZ), an output head that represents these three sources as binary, bounded, and stochastic generators of a zonotope, and admits a closed-form likelihood by convolution. Sharing the bounded generator across prediction steps couples future predictions algebraically, so observing one step refines the predictive distribution at every remaining step in a single forward pass. We establish that the three generators are identifiable from the likelihood up to permutation, and that an HProbZ density is representationally distinct from any finite Gaussian mixture. The same shared structure provides analytic per-mode risk and distribution-free multi-modal conformal sets at inference time. Empirical analysis on representative prediction benchmarks supports the effectiveness of the design relative to same-encoder mixture baselines, while offering structural properties that mixture or convex-conformal predictors do not jointly provide.
Sim-to-real policies are designed under nominal dynamics, but target-system trials may yield only a few isolated one-step transitions. We study pre-execution certification of a fixed control sequence, such as an action chunk produced by a learned policy. If the sequence reaches an unobserved state-input region, the observations remain consistent with target systems whose trajectories separate along it by an arbitrarily large amount. Any deterministic certifier sound for all of them must then decline to certify or return a reachable tube with arbitrarily large projected width. For bounded smooth classes of the target-nominal model error, we derive a finite plan-dependent projected-width lower bound. These results expose a trilemma among uniform trajectory containment, finite projected width, and unrestricted model-error behavior beyond the observations. ForeReach requires a supplied componentwise Lipschitz bound on the model error. Observed transition pairs can refute this declaration but cannot establish it outside the observed locations. Conditional on a valid declaration, our method constructs a set-membership envelope for the model error, propagates a zonotopic reachable tube, and certifies only when propagation remains within the certification domain and every projected tube slice avoids the unsafe set. In two benchmark systems, calibration baselines may remain narrow after losing trajectory containment outside data support, whereas our method declines to certify unsupported sequences and recovers certification when relevant target data and sufficient obstacle clearance are available.
Yanliang Huang, Zhen Zhang, Ahmad Hafez et al.· 0 citations
Reachability analysis for visuomotor policies is difficult because large visual encoders make end-to-end set propagation computationally expensive and excessively conservative. We therefore freeze the visual encoder and confine set propagation to a low-dimensional interface between it and the downstream policy, with the interface set calibrated from held-out camera-pose perturbations. Propagating this set through the policy with zonotopes yields a terminal output-enclosure width that set-based training optimizes directly. During evaluation, camera-pose perturbations are sampled from the prescribed distribution, and rollout-level split conformal calibration converts the resulting action-deviation scores into a probabilistic reachable-action radius with finite-sample coverage. In controlled manipulation experiments, set-based training reduces this radius while preserving closed-loop task capability, and matched behavior-only, observational-consistency, and pointwise-adversarial controls all leave a larger radius.
Yanliang Huang, Zhuocheng Zhang, Peng Xie et al.· 0 citations
CompCPZ, a sound algebraic layer that language-conditioned learning systems wrap to recover multi-modal disjunctive representation, recursively composing per-primitive constrained polynomial zonotope enclosures along the language parse tree with distribution-free conformal coverage and sub-millisecond runtime is presented.
Zhen Zhang, Ahmad Hafez, Peng Xie et al.· 0 citations
Scaling transformer language models creates an inherent tension between expressivity and memory efficiency. While unique weights across layers preserve functional specialization---from input-grounding to abstract refinement---they incur a substantial memory footprint. Conversely, standard depth-sharing enforces uniform transformations that collapse representational diversity and degrade modeling quality. We introduce Gated Recurrent Transformer, a recurrent depth transformer where fixed-depth prelude and coda blocks bracket a single shared core iterated R times. Inspired by gated recurrent neural networks, we employ a lightweight projection and an elementwise update gate---conditioned on the hidden state, the fixed prelude output, and noise resampled at every step---to modulate the recurrent update. This allows the model to specialize the input to the same few layers across recurrences, rather than requiring many unique layers to achieve functional diversity. Under an isoFLOPS constraint, a 3-layer Gated Recurrent Transformer matches the accuracy of a 12-layer GPT-2 Small baseline with similar training and inference FLOPs, and leads MoR and heavy-tail depth sampling in all nine scale-by-budget cells; at medium and large scale it approaches dense quality at the standard token budget and overtakes it at medium scale once that budget is doubled. Under an isoPARAMS constraint, deeper recurrence achieves a 2.76 validation loss versus 2.84 for a non-recurrent counterpart at matched parameter and data budget. Our results demonstrate that adaptive depth reuse is a principled strategy for trading parameters for quality: at large scale, 63% fewer parameters and 59% less peak decoding memory for a 10% increase in compiled generation latency.
Amr Hegazy, Amr Alanwar, Mostafa Elhoushi· 0 citations
A validity theory and audit with three components: two-sided validation of nuisance removal and response preservation, all-optima identification of downstream conclusions, and uncertainty propagation after validity is established is developed.
Zhen Zhang, Ahmad Hafez, Amr Alanwar· 0 citations
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